Your Full Emmys Breakdown: Who Should Win Vs. Who Will
After a wildly unusual year of television, we’re once again prepping for the annual Emmy awards, live Sunday, September 19th on CBS and Paramount+. This year’s nominations run from the obvious choices (they should just set up a permanent reserved seat for Olivia Colman at this point) to delightful surprises (welcome Bowen Yang!). Since the Emmys are notorious for mixing no-brainer decisions with wild surprises, I’ve divided up my awards predictions into the clear choices and the underdogs that may prevail, plus my personal favorites of the year.
Here’s a brutally honest ballot from a teenager who is not a member of the Television Academy.
Best Comedy
The Clear Choice: Ted Lasso
The Underdog: Pen15
My Pick: Pen15
The Flight Attendant is very oddly placed in this category given that the subject matter is murder and substance abuse, but the Emmy recognition is without a doubt for Kaley Cuoco’s acting and not the show itself. Hacks was good, but again probably focused on Jean Smart and not the show as a whole. Black-ish gets nominated every year, and don’t even ask me why Emily in Paris and Cobra Kai are included here. I get that Michael Douglas and Alan Arkin are legends but The Kominsky Method doesn’t make sense either. As much as I’m rooting for my beloved awkward middle school comedy Pen15, I know in my heart that Ted Lasso will snag this one.
Best Drama
The Clear Choice: The Crown
The Underdog: Pose
My Pick: Pose
The Boys, Bridgerton and The Mandalorian were all fun, but nowhere near Best Drama, and This Is Us is nominated exclusively so the primetime networks can have something to hold on to as the streamers slowly edge them out of awards season. Lovecraft Country was cancelled by HBO which should serve as a sign it probably won’t win the biggest award of the night. The Handmaid’s Tale speaks to abortion and women’s rights after a very turbulent year in politics, but then again they already swept when they first premiered. Pose never got the recognition they deserved through their three season run, and this will be the last chance for a win. But it’s been such a big year for the royal family that The Crown will be hard to ignore- plus their Golden Globes win for Best Drama Series pretty much cements their place here.
Best Limited Series
The Clear Choice: I May Destroy You
The Underdog: The Queen’s Gambit
My Pick: WandaVision
I adored WandaVision, and in another world this absolutely could win, but we’re a long way away from Hollywood taking Marvel seriously. In 2019 when Black Panther was a clear choice for Best Picture nominee, the Academy coincidentally introduced the new category of “Best Popular Film”, so let’s just say they aren’t quite ready to take superheroes seriously. Mare of Easttown was a joke, and The Underground Railroad just doesn’t really stand out. The Queen’s Gambit was excellent, but I May Destroy You deserves this award in every sense, from the delicate handling of disturbing subject matter to Michaela Coel’s quadruple role as director, writer, showrunner and star.
Best Actress, Comedy
The Clear Choice: Jean Smart
The Underdog: Kaley Cuoco
My Pick: Kaley Cuoco
I wouldn’t count Allison Janney out completely since Mom is ending, but my guess is they’d rather award a relatively new project. Same for Tracee Ellis Ross, who has been included as long as Black-ish has been running. Aidy Bryant is great on SNL, but her character on Shrill is insufferable and she doesn’t have good material to work with, so this award is likely between Jean Smart and Kaley Cuoco. Since Ted Lasso will get Best Comedy, my guess is Best Actress will go to Jean Smart as a consolation prize. I wish that Kaley Cuoco would win, because she gave The Flight Attendant her absolute all and proved how much more she is than The Big Bang Theory.
Best Actor, Comedy
The Clear Choice: Jason Sudeikis
The Underdog: Jason Sudeikis
My Pick: Jason Sudeikis
I’m more certain of this category than any other, Jason Sudeikis is a shoo-in. Anthony Anderson has been nominated for Black-ish forever, Michael Douglas only got nominated because he’s Michael Douglas and not for his role in The Kominsky Method, and Kenan is nothing new nor interesting. Shameless has been running for absolutely forever, and when you add in William H. Macy’s college bribery scandal he’s not in the running at all. Jason Sudeikis gave everyone America’s nicest guy when we needed him most.
Best Actress, Drama
The Clear Choice: Olivia Colman or Elisabeth Moss
The Underdog: MJ Rodriguez
My Pick: MJ Rodriguez
Uzo Aduba is fantastic in anything she’s in, but In Treatment was atrocious even for a quarantine project. Lovecraft Country was fine but probably isn’t going to win anything this year. The major players here are The Handmaid’s Tale and The Crown, and both Colman and Moss have previous wins so it could go either way. MJ Rodriguez is electric and deserves this whole heartedly, but Pose’s actors haven’t been recognized in acting categories yet at all.
Best Actor, Drama
The Clear Choice: Josh O’Connor
The Underdog: Rege-Jean Page
My Pick: Billy Porter
Sterling K. Brown and Matthew Rhys are both fillers here, and Lovecraft Country is probably out of the question for all of the reasons I explained in previous categories. Josh O’Connor won the Golden Globe this year, but it’s possible Reje-Jean Page’s one season arc in Bridgerton (the Duke won’t be returning in the next installment) was enough to impress the academy. Even though Billy Porter won in 2019, he’s incredible and deserves it again.
Best Actress, Limited Series
The Clear Choice: Anya Taylor-Joy
The Underdog: Michaela Coel
My Pick: Elizabeth Olsen
Elizabeth Olsen gave WandaVision her absolute all in an emotionally and physically taxing performance, but she’s up against some major competition. Cynthia Erivo and Kate Winslet’s projects weren’t great but they’re both incredible in anything. Michaela Coel is amazing, but The Queen’s Gambit had more of a focus on the acting and Anya nailed that at such a young age. Anya Taylor-Joy is the clear choice, but I wouldn’t rule anyone out here.
Best Actor, Limited Series
The Clear Choice: Lin-Manuel Miranda
The Underdog: Leslie Odom Jr.
My Pick: Lin-Manuel Miranda
Olsen did all of the heavy lifting for WandaVision so I’m ruling out Paul Bettany off the bat, and Halston was awful. This category is up to two starkly different projects: whether the academy is leaning towards smash hit Hamilton or the more subdued The Undoing. There have been so many shows over the years of the same dark plot and lead actor who’s quiet and then screams once and wins an Emmy. We needed a fun musical watch during quarantine more than ever, and Hamilton gave us just that- I think Lin-Manuel Miranda is the obvious choice.
